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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers rising together. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still